The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs can, and can, hold getting away with it.
After WR Rashee Rice went down with an harm that might sideline him for an prolonged time period, I wrote about how the Chiefs’ offense has a razor skinny margin for error offensively, and their incapacity to generate explosives was the largest purpose why I felt uncertain about them.
Nevertheless, I believe I’ve come round on this model of each the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes, whose uncooked numbers don’t inform the entire story. By way of seven video games, Mahomes has thrown extra interceptions than touchdowns (8 INTs to six TDs). These six passing touchdowns are by far the bottom by seven video games of his complete profession. Nevertheless, the Chiefs’ offense and Mahomes are have the very best success fee within the NFL at 51.3%. This implies over half the time they snap the ball, they’re operating a profitable play. For context, that might be the sixth highest Success Charge by seven weeks for ANY staff since 2018.
They’re nonetheless top-of-the-line groups within the league by way of transferring the chains and producing first downs, regardless of the offense not feeling the identical.
So, if Mahomes has extra interceptions than touchdowns, and the passing offense has felt so sluggish, how are they nonetheless doing this at an extremely excessive stage?
The evolution of the Chiefs’ offense has been a sight to behold. From the second Mahomes took over to the place the present offense is, there’s been a shift in how the staff executes their offense. For one, they clearly aren’t throwing the ball downfield as a lot. Mahomes’ present Common Throw Depth of 5.1 Yards is definitely the bottom of his profession, and a stark drop from the 9.8 quantity he had in 2019. As a lot as we would like this offense to be the enjoyable and gun, explosive offense that we used to know in KC, I believe it’s time we let that go. This offense isn’t going to generate as many explosives as they used to, for a number of causes. The primary one being that there simply isn’t sufficient of a rapport between Mahomes and the little downfield targets which are wholesome on this staff. First spherical choose Xavier Worthy has performed properly in spurts, however he and Mahomes nonetheless lack the synchronization downfield that Mahomes had with Tyreek Hill.
In opposition to the 49ers, there have been alternatives, however both Mahomes missed them:
Or one thing goes terribly incorrect, similar to Worthy tripping right here and it results in an interception:
That, mixed with only a lack of downfield choices, is why this offense hasn’t felt explosive. Mahomes solely has 5 completions of 20 Air Yards or extra this season, his lowest mark by seven video games since 2020. So, in the event that they’re not explosive downfield, how is that this offense nonetheless transferring the ball and prime 15 in Factors Per Sport? The reply to that’s easy: they kill opponents with probably the most brutally environment friendly offense within the recreation.
Folks level to Mahomes’ aDOT and Air Yards per completion to say he’s checking it down at a better fee. Nicely, the reply to that’s sure and no. QBs are checking it down much more typically, however the way in which that the KC offense is constructed, Mahomes and the passing recreation can feast on numbers and angles. Typically, you’ll see Kansas Metropolis run a bubble on the bottom of run performs, not essentially an RPO but when Mahomes counts these numbers within the field and so they’re greater than what they’ve out there to dam, he can simply flip it out to the display. That is an instance from their win over the Saints. Mahomes sees the field rely and simply throws it out to the bubble.
This, notably, occurs on early downs due to how dynamic the Chiefs’ offense has change into. With the way in which that they will run the ball (eleventh in EPA per keep it up all RB runs, eighth in Optimistic Play Charge in the identical metric), the offense can grind groups down and drive them to defend each blade of grass horizontally utilizing misdirection and their improved run recreation. That is once more simply studying the field rely. Due to the specter of Worthy within the slot on a bubble, the overhang defender goes with him and also you get six blockers vs six field defenders. The result’s a constructive acquire for Kareem Hunt.
The place the rubber actually meets the highway for Mahomes is on late downs. Whereas the Chiefs ask him to be extra of a distributor on early downs, on third and fourth down he dons the magician’s cape for Kansas Metropolis. His Common Throw Depth goes up by virtually three yards on late downs, his EPA per makes an attempt jumps massively and on prime of that, his scrambles change into a lot simpler.
Mahomes Magic on Late Downs
| Down | Common Throw Depth | EPA/play | Success Charge | Scrambles | First down Charge on scrambles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down | Common Throw Depth | EPA/play | Success Charge | Scrambles | First down Charge on scrambles |
| Early Downs | 5 | 0.088 | 52.40% | 7 | 42.90% |
| Late Downs | 7.6 | 0.225 | 51.60% | 8 | 75% |
Patrick Mahomes has been uber efficient as a scrambler this yr—ESPN’s Ben Solak wrote that Mahomes has a blistering 87.5% Success Charge on scrambles this yr—and it comes at instances when the Chiefs want him most. When Kansas Metropolis wants 9 yards on third and eight, they flip to Mahomes, who merely is not going to be denied:
Third and eight, Niners are in Cowl 2 and every part for probably the most half is roofed, and SF will get strain. Chiefs nonetheless get 9 yards due to that psycho they’ve at QB.
Taking part in the Chiefs would piss me off a lot lmao pic.twitter.com/F7W0KToicM
— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) October 21, 2024
Or, if there’s a gap within the zone on late downs, he simply scrambles for simply sufficient to piss you off watching on television.
In a manner, Mahomes has change into the brand new age Tom Brady of NFL quarterbacking. Preserving the offense on schedule by early downs, however the little issues that he does in relation to transferring within the pocket and manipulation of beneath defenders is what defines him on early downs. Nevertheless, when the Chiefs want him most, his well timed scrambles on late downs and conventional Mahomes magic outline what the Chiefs do.
No, it’s not fairly, no, it’s not explosive. However it’s brutally environment friendly and has probably the most brutally environment friendly QB within the recreation on the forefront.
