A big quarterback domino has fallen.
Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions agreed to phrases on a four-year, $212 million contract extension that features $170 million assured earlier this week. The deal makes Goff, who’s had a profession resurgence in Detroit, the second-highest-paid quarterback when it comes to common annual worth at $53 million, solely trailing Cincinnati Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow ($55 million).
It will increase the highlight on the opposite extension-eligible quarterbacks throughout the league forward of the 2024 season: the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Packers’ Jordan Love, Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa.
What does Goff’s deal imply for every of them? Here is a breakdown:
Trevor Lawrence
For Lawrence, who hasn’t but performed to the expectations that got here with being a No. 1 total choose, Goff’s deal represents nice information.
A former prime total choose himself, Goff is a quarterback some league observers would not even put of their prime 10 on the place. However with back-to-back sturdy seasons in Detroit, he is landed a deal that slots him at No. 2 in common annual worth for signal-callers.
There’s some perception that Lawrence could be finest served ready till subsequent spring to push for an extension, contemplating his disappointing 2023 marketing campaign, when his numbers have been down in most main classes, as he registered 21 turnovers (third-most within the NFL), battled a number of accidents (concussion, knee, ankle, shoulder) and was hampered by a shuffled offensive line and lackluster run recreation. However Goff’s contract serves as proof that he may not want to attend to safe a deal value at the least $50 million in common annual worth.
Goff has performed higher than Lawrence the previous two seasons, however many would agree that the latter is the extra proficient participant. Lawrence can be 5 years youthful, and the Jaguars have made clear this offseason that they view him as their franchise quarterback, regardless of their hopes for him to chop down on the turnovers (since getting into the NFL in 2021, he leads the league with 60 giveaways) and take extra possession of the offense. Contract extension negotiations have been ongoing between Jacksonville and Lawrence’s camp. –Ben Arthur
Dave Helman reacts to the Lions’ big choice to increase Jared Goff’s contract
Jordan Love
Love is perhaps in essentially the most distinctive state of affairs of any of those quarterbacks. As an alternative of choosing up his fifth-year possibility previous to final season, the Inexperienced Bay Packers signed him to a two-year extension that gave them some respiratory room to guage whether or not or not Love was certainly their subsequent franchise quarterback.
Surrounded by the youngest crew within the league, Love then led the Packers to the divisional spherical of the NFC playoffs final yr, surpassing any and all expectations. He had a much better first season than his predecessor did, and everyone knows how that turned out.
Whereas Love had among the finest performances we have seen out of a first-year starter within the again half of 2023 (Love threw for 18 touchdowns towards only one interception within the last eight video games), it was solely half of a season. Love ended up throwing for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns with 11 interceptions when all was mentioned and performed. Whereas that is higher than some franchises within the division have ever seen from their quarterback in a single season, is it sufficient to award a market-setting contract to Love? That is what the Packers should now grapple with.
Goff’s deal actually works in Love’s favor. If I am Love’s agent, I am arguing that Goff had a greater crew round him and did not pull fairly the heroics Love needed to final season to guide their respective groups to success. Love additionally hasn’t theoretically reached his ceiling, at the least that is a means his camp can spin it. Goff is a recognized commodity and Love has a case to be known as a greater quarterback than Goff proper now whereas solely getting higher.
All that’s to say, Love could be warranted in wanting a much bigger deal than the one Goff simply received. Inexperienced Bay will doubtless push again, positive, however losing the primary three years of Love’s rookie contract is not Love’s drawback, both. The going charge for a franchise quarterback now begins with a 5.
There’s additionally a matter of how lengthy Love’s contract may and ought to be. Goff’s deal retains him in Detroit for 4 years till he is 34 (nonetheless inside a quarterback’s prime window). The Packers are most likely extra incentivized to do a longer-term deal for Love, one thing extra like what the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes. These sorts of offers can find yourself trying like a reduction fairly shortly. However seeing Goff signal such a deal in his prime years reinforces that given Love’s age and continued ascension, hitting the market once more in 4 years in his age-29 season would give him the prospect to reset the market sooner. –Carmen Vitali
Can the Packers maintain ascending into subsequent season?
Dak Prescott
It truthfully does not really feel like Goff’s deal does a lot to alter Prescott’s outlook — it simply additional emphasizes the price of high-caliber quarterback play. Prescott was at all times more likely to get again towards the highest of the quarterback market, and this simply seems like additional proof.
That is the worth of leverage. The Cowboys’ signal-caller scored a serious win again in 2021, when he efficiently secured a no-tag clause and a no-trade clause on his present $160 million extension. Right here in 2024, he is on the verge of cashing in.
It does not really feel like hyperbole to recommend that Prescott holds all of the playing cards heading into his subsequent negotiation. He’s within the prime of his profession, having been named an All-Professional final season and turning simply 31 this summer time. He is thrown 96 touchdowns and helped the Cowboys to 31 wins up to now three seasons, together with two division titles. He eased issues about his well being in 2023, as properly, by showing in each common season recreation for the primary time since 2019.
Most significantly, there is not any stopping Prescott from hitting the open market in 2025, if that is what he desires to do. Judging from Kirk Cousins’ payday on the age of 36 and coming off a torn Achilles, it is a good guess Prescott may have loads of suitors for his providers.
Prescott goes to signal an eye-popping contract someday between now and March. The one query is whether or not he’ll signal it with the Cowboys or another person. –David Helman
Will Dak Prescott be the best paid QB within the NFL subsequent season?
Tua Tagovailoa
System quarterbacks receives a commission, too. Goff did it. Tua is subsequent.
Two issues may be true about these QBs: 1) they’re completely NFL starting-caliber abilities and a pair of) their environment make them higher. How would Tua or Goff have fared in New England final yr? My guess is: Not, nice Bob!
However they don’t seem to be in New England. Tua has Mike McDaniel, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and, now, Odell Beckham Jr. And that’s, partially, why Tua will receives a commission rather a lot like Goff, who has his personal in depth supporting forged.
The Tagovailoa extension is coming this offseason. He ought to make upwards of $50 million {dollars} per yr. And some years later, that may come to price the Dolphins parts of their supporting forged. And some years after that, will probably be the second of sink-or-swim for Tua. It’s the pivot level the place QBs both elevate their offense or present they’ll solely operate when elevated.
However that’s for the long run. Within the meantime, we’ll await Tua’s main extension that may look rather a lot like Goff’s as a result of Tua’s expertise and profession look rather a lot like Goff’s. –Henry McKenna
The next reporters contributed to this story:
AFC South reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
AFC East reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)
Dallas Cowboys reporter David Helman (@davidhelman_)
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