Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
NFL season win totals have been posted for a number of weeks, however now that the league has launched schedules, we will actually dive into the motion.
There are two squads whose numbers actually catch my eye — Pittsburgh and Dallas.
Will Steelers’ beefed up quarterback room assist them win extra video games? And might the Cowboys maintain rolling within the common season?
Let’s dive into how I am betting these two groups’ win totals this upcoming season.
Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Below 8.5 wins
Mike Tomlin has been the pinnacle coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers for the reason that 2007 season. His Steelers have but to complete a season below .500 throughout his teaching profession. It has been a outstanding streak of excellence that he continued this successful tradition on the finish of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s profession and after Massive Ben’s 2021 retirement.
The Steelers win with protection and relentless power. At instances, once they make magic out of nowhere, it seems like they win with voodoo. Their offense would not play an enormous function of their wins or losses. In 2021, their offense ranked twenty first in factors per sport. In 2022, that rating went right down to twenty sixth within the league and final season, it went down even additional to twenty eighth within the league.
To handle the offensive points — primarily at quarterback — the Steelers signed Russell Wilson and traded for Justin Fields. Embrace me within the group of folks that believes neither of those quarterbacks will proceed Tomlin’s annual custom of ending at .500 or above.
Wilson will probably be beginning in Pittsburgh, so please don’t imagine the Fields hype. Nonetheless, Wilson is simply not good anymore. No matter metric you’d like to make use of, be it passer ranking, DVOA, EPA (or another stat), none of these level to Wilson being good. These metrics additionally do not present QB primed for a bounce-back season.
Whereas quarterback wins do not qualify as an precise stat, it is nonetheless an space you must contemplate when evaluating the place. In Wilson’s final three seasons, together with his closing one in Seattle, his groups’ file is a mixed 17-27 (when he’s began the sport). Positive, Pittsburgh will give him a change of surroundings, however he has an offensive line filled with rookies. That is not going to cater to Wilson’s propensity to not play throughout the offense, together with holding the ball too lengthy.
Steelers have third-toughest schedule, 49ers the workforce to beat
I do imagine it’s cheap to imagine the protection will probably be good or perhaps even above common. However with their schedule, that will not be sufficient to win 9 video games.
Steelers followers will level to their 5-1 division file final season to help the argument that they will achieve success once more in 2024.
Effectively, two of these 5 wins got here towards the Bengals, who have been with out quarterback Joe Burrow. After which there was the Week 18 sport towards the Ravens, who performed their backups. Pittsburgh’s powerful video games exterior the division embrace the Chiefs, Colts, Jets and Eagles. Additionally it is a workforce infamous for shedding even when it’s favored by a landing a minimum of as soon as every season, so it is onerous to circle any for-sure wins on the calendar.
I feel the Steelers are going 8-9 this season, so I am betting on them to go below their quantity.
PICK: Steelers Below 8.5 wins
Will Dak Prescott’s contract negotiations affect the Cowboys’ season?
Dallas Cowboys Over/Below 10.5 wins
What number of instances have the Cowboys hit the Below on their preseason win complete throughout Dak’s tenure?
3 times in his eight seasons (a kind of cases was through the 2020 season, wherein he missed 11 video games because of damage). And in 4 out of eight seasons with Dak as a starter, Massive D has received 11 video games or extra.
In reality, the Cowboys have gone 12-5 in three straight seasons below head coach Mike McCarthy, so wagering on their Below may appear counterintuitive to their current manufacturing.
However hear me out.
I do not imagine Dallas’ offseason strikes make the squad higher instantly. The workforce is taking part in two rookies on the offensive line, one among which is at left deal with and desires main polish to be prepared for Week 1. Additionally, when future Corridor of Fame left deal with Tyron Smith is out of the lineup, we’ve seen how totally different Prescott’s numbers are and the way his absence impacts Cowboys wins.
Effectively, Smith is now a New York Jet and first-round choose Tyler Guyton would be the subsequent man up. That may be a HUGE distinction.
After which there’s Dallas’ working again scenario, which could be the worst within the league. Sure, the ability group surrounding Dak is above common however not something extremely spectacular.
On the opposite facet of the ball, the protection misplaced defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to the Commanders head teaching job, so I’d anticipate some regression even with the hiring of Mike Zimmer. The Cowboys’ pattern of forcing a bunch of turnovers just isn’t sustainable.
Lastly, Dallas has a troublesome schedule this yr. It will get the AFC South plus a first-place division and cross-conference opponent schedule. The Lions, 49ers, Buccaneers and Bengals are on the schedule.
Contemplating all the above, I feel the Cowboys will fall in need of racking up as many wins as they’ve the previous a number of years.
PICK: Cowboys Below 10.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior yr. Comply with him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
Need nice tales delivered proper to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports activities account, and comply with leagues, groups and gamers to obtain a customized publication every day!
Get extra from Nationwide Soccer League Comply with your favorites to get details about video games, information and extra
