MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to interrupt down the largest fights within the UFC. At the moment, he takes a more in-depth take a look at the UFC 302 important occasion between light-weight champion Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier.
Islam Makhachev UFC 302 preview
Staple data:
- Document: 25-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC
- Peak: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs. Attain: 70.5″
- Final battle: Knockout win over Alexander Volkanovski (Oct. 21, 2023)
- Camp: Eagles MMA (Dubai/Russia)
- Stance/placing type: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Danger administration: Glorious
Supplemental data:
+ UFC light-weight champion
+ Fight sambo world champion
+ 4x Russian sambo champion
+ Grasp of sports activities in fight sambo
+ 5 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Constant tempo and stress
+ Improved total placing
^ Strong variance in shot choice
+ Onerous kicks from the left aspect
+ Good takedown capability
^ Favors chaining off singles
+ Robust contained in the clinch
^ Glorious journeys, knees and tosses
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Wrist management, rides, passes
+/- 2-1 in opposition to UFC-level southpaws
Dustin Poirier UFC 302 preview
Staple data:
- Peak: 5’9″ Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Attain: 72″
- Final battle: Knockout win over Benoit Saint-Denis (March 9, 2024)
- Camp: American Prime Staff (Florida)
- Stance/placing type: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Danger administration: Honest
Supplemental data:
+Former interim UFC light-weight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Novice MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Thug-jitsu disciple
+ 15 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Aggressive tempo and stress
+ Improved total boxing
^ Cage-cuts, shifts, takes angles
+ Correct left cross and proper hook
^ Coming ahead or off the counter
+ Robust contained in the clinch
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Strong submissions and scrambling
+/- 6-2 in opposition to UFC-level southpaws
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier focal point: Southpaw vs. southpaw
Mar 9, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Benoit Saint Denis (blue gloves) fights Dustin Poirier (pink gloves) throughout UFC 299 at Kayesa Middle. Obligatory Credit score: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports activities
The primary occasion in New Jersey contains a light-weight title battle between two gifted southpaws, Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier.
As I all the time state in my evaluation, nobody hates preventing different southpaws greater than southpaws themselves. The reason being that most individuals who battle from that stance are inclined to predicate their video games in opposition to orthodox-stance fighters as a result of sheer nature of abundance, making it tough to foretell how pairings of lefties will play out.
These considerably distinctive stance pairings not solely open up conventional lanes of offense that aren’t often out there to southpaws (like exterior leg assaults), however I’d additionally argue that these matchups reveal potential downside areas that will not in any other case be obvious to a fighter given what they’re usually allowed to get away with in open-stance affairs.
Poirier, who has extra expertise in these kinds of matchups, presently stands at 6-2 reverse UFC-level lefties.
An aggressive fighter out of the chute, the 15-year professional from Louisiana has developed from the as soon as keen slugger to a extra mature fighter who likes to dictate brawls relatively than enter them. Actually, Poirier has made important upgrades to his recreation since transferring store to American Prime Staff in South Florida.
Demonstrating a wonderful consciousness of distance and footwork, the slugging southpaw will shift his stance for setups (typically doubling up on strikes from the identical aspect) as he adjusts his angles accordingly with fight-ending photographs in thoughts.
Using this type of shifting to create assault alternatives, Poirier has proven to sit down down extra on his punches, giving 5 fighters their first stoppage losses since returning to 155 kilos. The 35-year-old additionally shows enhancements to his prodding, pulling and returning, however will doubtless must thoughts the kicking propensities of his opponent.
Combating out of a southpaw stance, Makhachev has proven to be far more than a sambo practitioner since stepping onto the UFC scene.
Fellow southpaw Adriano Martins might have been capable of audit Makhachev’s early aggression with a wonderfully positioned verify hook at UFC 192, however the Dagestani fighter has been steadily bettering his placing since his lone setback.
Now, it’s not unusual to see Makhachev play at a a lot safer vary when trying to arrange his photographs and strikes. Whether or not Makhachev is sniping crosses down the centerline or mixing the targets of his kicking assaults, the 32-year-old does a stable job of regularly altering his stage and variating his shot choice.
Makhachev’s patented verify proper hook continues to be a key participant with regard to countering presence that’s value watching out for on this battle, however I wouldn’t be stunned to see him press extra of his clinch placing on this matchup.
Favoring single and double collar-tie variations within the clinch, Makhachev does an excellent job of using well-placed knees to govern defenses and create openings. That mentioned, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Makhachev prioritize grappling change-ups on condition that Makhachev has proven little curiosity in placing when going through fellow southpaws.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier breakdown: Shield your neck
Feb 12, 2023; Perth, WA, AUSTRALIA; Islam Makhachev (pink gloves) fights Alexander Volkanovski (blue gloves) throughout UFC 284 at RAC Area. Obligatory Credit score: Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports activities
Given the trail of least resistance (a minimum of on paper), nobody must be shocked if Makhachev elects to wrestle Poirier early and sometimes.
Akin to his now-coach, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev additionally scores a big a part of his takedowns off of chaining assaults in clinch area.
Whether or not Makhachev is working from his favored single-leg place or hitting slick journeys and tosses from tie-ups, the product from Dagestan shows stable adaptability within the wrestling realm. However, Makhachev shouldn’t be past hitting reactive photographs within the open – one thing that Poirier will want to concentrate on.
Nevertheless, Poirier – regardless of his historical past with sure wrestlers – isn’t precisely a slouch within the wrestling division.
Beneath the care of American Prime Staff, we have now seen Poirier steadily enhance his wrestling expertise over time. “The Diamond” exhibits competent level-changing talents within the open however arguably does his finest takedown work when he is ready to corral his opponents in opposition to the cage.
Defensively, Poirier has quietly sharpened up his sprawls whereas sustaining a formidable capability to scramble within the warmth of battle. Though Poirier nonetheless selects escapes that include their fair proportion of publicity, the Thug-jitsu disciple thrives in reversal situations.
A superb transitional grappler, Poirier could make hay from many positions and isn’t afraid to carry from topside whereas pouring on the punishment. Nonetheless, whether or not he’s baiting submissions to cross or utilizing an underhook to dictate place, Poirier will must be on his finest conduct and keep away from sacrificing place with one thing foolish like a guillotine choke reverse Makhachev.
I do know it’s the massive joke that everybody is leaning into this week, however unneeded scrambles may lead the the dominant positions {that a} grappler like Makhachev can use to shut the present.
Except for having super hip and grip consciousness, Makhachev is one in every of my favourite fighters to level to in regard to demonstrating the significance of wrist management.
As I all the time say, WRIST CONTROL is the unsung hero in all martial arts and Islam Makhachev is a superb instance to look to in MMA
Submit disruptions, wrist-feeds to journeys, defensive grip separations that opens up knees, cross-wrist rides for strikes & wrist pins for submission setups pic.twitter.com/LQ1nE4981q
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 8, 2023
An unsung hero in regard to efficient martial arts methods, Makhachev’s quiet management of fingers and wrists helps stymie his opposition’s advances whereas he furthers his personal.
Makhachev additionally employs stellar legwork that goes past his standing clinch work, because it’s not unusual to see the 14-year professional incorporate crab rides at the side of again assaults (as seen in his end of Thiago Moises).
Towards Thiago Moises, Islam Makhachev used wrist controls to land some stable floor strikes that pressured his foe to show and turtle because the themes of wrist management – at the side of a candy crab journey – continued to ultimately permit Makhachev to seek out his end. #UFC284 pic.twitter.com/seHjk8cEb9
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 8, 2023
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier odds
The oddsmakers and the general public are closely favoring the present champion, itemizing Makhachev -620 and Poirier +400 by way of FanDuel.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier prediction, decide
Regardless of these odds feeling borderline disrespectful to a fighter of Poirier’s stature, I can’t say that I’m stunned to see the inflation on the Makhachev finish.
Outdoors of a whole lot of gamblers feeling like they missed out on an awesome line in Makhachev’s final impromptu outing, the Dagestani fighter additionally possesses an insanely passionate fanbase who develop tumescent on the considered his coach Khabib Nurmagomedov and the whole lot he touches.
Nonetheless, I can’t blame anybody for taking a small stab on the Poirier aspect given the numbers connected to his title.
Except for the truth that Poirier’s patent verify proper might replicate the success Adriano Martins had on paper, the Louisiana native additionally possesses some underrated knees and a left cross value looking forward to on this battle.
Nevertheless, it’s arduous to disregard the truth that Poirier appears to have again publicity hardwired into his scrambling sensibilities – which I think can be what in the end prices him right here.
Spherical 2 can be notably potent for both fighter to complete in, however I’ll formally decide Makhachev to win by submission in Spherical 3.
Prediction: Makhachev inside the space
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier begin time, the place to look at
Makhachev and Poirier are anticipated to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 12:15 a.m. ET. The battle streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For extra on the cardboard, go to MMA Junkie’s occasion hub for UFC 302.
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