MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to interrupt down the largest fights within the UFC. At the moment, he takes a better take a look at the UFC 302 essential occasion between light-weight champion Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier.
Islam Makhachev UFC 302 preview
Staple data:
- File: 25-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC
- Peak: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs. Attain: 70.5″
- Final battle: Knockout win over Alexander Volkanovski (Oct. 21, 2023)
- Camp: Eagles MMA (Dubai/Russia)
- Stance/placing fashion: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Danger administration: Wonderful
Supplemental data:
+ UFC light-weight champion
+ Fight sambo world champion
+ 4x Russian sambo champion
+ Grasp of sports activities in fight sambo
+ 5 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Constant tempo and stress
+ Improved total placing
^ Stable variance in shot choice
+ Exhausting kicks from the left facet
+ Good takedown capacity
^ Favors chaining off singles
+ Sturdy contained in the clinch
^ Wonderful journeys, knees and tosses
+ Very good transitional grappler
^ Wrist management, rides, passes
+/- 2-1 towards UFC-level southpaws
Dustin Poirier UFC 302 preview
Staple data:
- Peak: 5’9″ Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Attain: 72″
- Final battle: Knockout win over Benoit Saint-Denis (March 9, 2024)
- Camp: American Prime Staff (Florida)
- Stance/placing fashion: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Danger administration: Truthful
Supplemental data:
+Former interim UFC light-weight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Novice MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Thug-jitsu disciple
+ 15 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Aggressive tempo and stress
+ Improved total boxing
^ Cage-cuts, shifts, takes angles
+ Correct left cross and proper hook
^ Coming ahead or off the counter
+ Sturdy contained in the clinch
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Stable submissions and scrambling
+/- 6-2 towards UFC-level southpaws
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier focal point: Southpaw vs. southpaw
Mar 9, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Benoit Saint Denis (blue gloves) fights Dustin Poirier (pink gloves) throughout UFC 299 at Kayesa Heart. Necessary Credit score: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports activities
The principle occasion in New Jersey contains a light-weight title battle between two gifted southpaws, Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier.
As I at all times state in my evaluation, nobody hates combating different southpaws greater than southpaws themselves. The reason being that most individuals who battle from that stance are inclined to predicate their video games towards orthodox-stance fighters because of the sheer nature of abundance, making it difficult to foretell how pairings of lefties will play out.
These considerably distinctive stance pairings not solely open up conventional lanes of offense that aren’t normally out there to southpaws (like exterior leg assaults), however I might additionally argue that these matchups reveal potential drawback areas that will not in any other case be obvious to a fighter given what they’re usually allowed to get away with in open-stance affairs.
Poirier, who has extra expertise in these types of matchups, presently stands at 6-2 reverse UFC-level lefties.
An aggressive fighter out of the chute, the 15-year professional from Louisiana has developed from the as soon as keen slugger to a extra mature fighter who likes to dictate brawls slightly than enter them. In reality, Poirier has made vital upgrades to his sport since transferring store to American Prime Staff in South Florida.
Demonstrating a wonderful consciousness of distance and footwork, the slugging southpaw will shift his stance for setups (typically doubling up on strikes from the identical facet) as he adjusts his angles accordingly with fight-ending photographs in thoughts.
Using this fashion of shifting to create assault alternatives, Poirier has proven to sit down down extra on his punches, giving 5 fighters their first stoppage losses since returning to 155 kilos. The 35-year-old additionally shows enhancements to his prodding, pulling and returning, however will doubtless have to thoughts the kicking propensities of his opponent.
Preventing out of a southpaw stance, Makhachev has proven to be way more than a sambo practitioner since stepping onto the UFC scene.
Fellow southpaw Adriano Martins might have been capable of audit Makhachev’s early aggression with a wonderfully positioned examine hook at UFC 192, however the Dagestani fighter has been steadily bettering his placing since his lone setback.
Now, it’s not unusual to see Makhachev play at a a lot safer vary when trying to arrange his photographs and strikes. Whether or not Makhachev is sniping crosses down the centerline or mixing the targets of his kicking assaults, the 32-year-old does a strong job of continually altering his degree and variating his shot choice.
Makhachev’s patented examine proper hook remains to be a key participant with regard to countering presence that’s price watching out for on this battle, however I wouldn’t be shocked to see him press extra of his clinch placing on this matchup.
Favoring single and double collar-tie variations within the clinch, Makhachev does a superb job of using well-placed knees to govern defenses and create openings. That stated, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Makhachev prioritize grappling change-ups provided that Makhachev has proven little curiosity in placing when dealing with fellow southpaws.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier breakdown: Defend your neck
Feb 12, 2023; Perth, WA, AUSTRALIA; Islam Makhachev (pink gloves) fights Alexander Volkanovski (blue gloves) throughout UFC 284 at RAC Enviornment. Necessary Credit score: Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports activities
Given the trail of least resistance (at the least on paper), nobody needs to be shocked if Makhachev elects to wrestle Poirier early and infrequently.
Akin to his now-coach, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev additionally scores a big a part of his takedowns off of chaining assaults in clinch house.
Whether or not Makhachev is working from his favored single-leg place or hitting slick journeys and tosses from tie-ups, the product from Dagestan shows strong adaptability within the wrestling realm. Nonetheless, Makhachev just isn’t past hitting reactive photographs within the open – one thing that Poirier will want to pay attention to.
Nevertheless, Poirier – regardless of his historical past with sure wrestlers – isn’t precisely a slouch within the wrestling division.
Underneath the care of American Prime Staff, we now have seen Poirier steadily enhance his wrestling abilities through the years. “The Diamond” reveals competent level-changing talents within the open however arguably does his finest takedown work when he is ready to corral his opponents towards the cage.
Defensively, Poirier has quietly sharpened up his sprawls whereas sustaining a formidable capacity to scramble within the warmth of battle. Though Poirier nonetheless selects escapes that include their fair proportion of publicity, the Thug-jitsu disciple thrives in reversal eventualities.
A wonderful transitional grappler, Poirier could make hay from many positions and isn’t afraid to carry from topside whereas pouring on the punishment. Nonetheless, whether or not he’s baiting submissions to go or utilizing an underhook to dictate place, Poirier will should be on his finest habits and keep away from sacrificing place with one thing foolish like a guillotine choke reverse Makhachev.
I do know it’s the large joke that everybody is leaning into this week, however unneeded scrambles could lead on the the dominant positions {that a} grappler like Makhachev can use to shut the present.
Other than having great hip and grip consciousness, Makhachev is certainly one of my favourite fighters to level to in regard to demonstrating the significance of wrist management.
As I at all times say, WRIST CONTROL is the unsung hero in all martial arts and Islam Makhachev is a good instance to look to in MMA
Submit disruptions, wrist-feeds to journeys, defensive grip separations that opens up knees, cross-wrist rides for strikes & wrist pins for submission setups pic.twitter.com/LQ1nE4981q
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 8, 2023
An unsung hero in regard to efficient martial arts methods, Makhachev’s quiet management of fingers and wrists helps stymie his opposition’s advances whereas he furthers his personal.
Makhachev additionally employs stellar legwork that goes past his standing clinch work, because it’s not unusual to see the 14-year professional incorporate crab rides along side again assaults (as seen in his end of Thiago Moises).
Towards Thiago Moises, Islam Makhachev used wrist controls to land some strong floor strikes that pressured his foe to show and turtle because the themes of wrist management – along side a candy crab journey – continued to ultimately enable Makhachev to search out his end. #UFC284 pic.twitter.com/seHjk8cEb9
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 8, 2023
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier odds
The oddsmakers and the general public are closely favoring the present champion, itemizing Makhachev -620 and Poirier +400 by way of FanDuel.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier prediction, choose
Regardless of these odds feeling borderline disrespectful to a fighter of Poirier’s stature, I can’t say that I’m shocked to see the inflation on the Makhachev finish.
Outdoors of loads of gamblers feeling like they missed out on a fantastic line in Makhachev’s final impromptu outing, the Dagestani fighter additionally possesses an insanely passionate fanbase who develop tumescent on the considered his coach Khabib Nurmagomedov and every thing he touches.
Nonetheless, I can’t blame anybody for taking a small stab on the Poirier facet given the numbers connected to his title.
Other than the truth that Poirier’s patent examine proper may replicate the success Adriano Martins had on paper, the Louisiana native additionally possesses some underrated knees and a left cross price looking ahead to on this battle.
Nevertheless, it’s exhausting to disregard the truth that Poirier appears to have again publicity hardwired into his scrambling sensibilities – which I think shall be what in the end prices him right here.
Spherical 2 shall be notably potent for both fighter to complete in, however I’ll formally choose Makhachev to win by submission in Spherical 3.
Prediction: Makhachev inside the gap
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier begin time, the place to observe
Makhachev and Poirier are anticipated to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 12:15 a.m. ET. The battle streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For extra on the cardboard, go to MMA Junkie’s occasion hub for UFC 302.
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