Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway prediction, decide: How UFC 308 headliner may finish inside the gap

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to interrupt down the most important fights within the UFC. Immediately, he takes a better have a look at the UFC 308 important occasion between featherweight champion Ilia Topuria and former champ Max Holloway.

Ilia Topuria UFC 308 preview

Staple information:

• File: 15-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC
• Peak: 5’7″ Age: 27 Weight: 145 lbs. Attain: 69″
• Final struggle: Knockout win over Alexander Volkanovski (Feb. 17, 2024)
• Camp: Climent Membership (Spain)
• Stance/placing fashion: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Threat administration: Good

Supplemental information:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Grappling and wrestling base
+ 5 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Aggressive tempo and strain
+ Good footwork and cage-cutting
+ Very good boxing approach
^ Jabs, bodywork, shoulder rolls
+ Stable wrestling capability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Wonderful transitional grappling
^ Harmful from front-headlock place

Max Holloway UFC 308 preview

• File: 26-7 MMA, 22-7 UFC
• Peak: 5’11” Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs. Attain: 69″
• Final struggle: Knockou win over Justin Gaethje (April 13, 2024)
• Camp: Gracie Technics/Legacy Muay Thai (Hawaii)
• Stance/placing fashion: Swap-stance/kickboxing
• Threat administration: Good

Supplemental information:
+ Former UFC featherweight champion
+ BMF belt holder
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 12 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Constructing tempo and strain
+ Stable feints and footwork
+ Wonderful shot choice
^ Variates effectively to the physique
+ 84 p.c takedown protection
+ Deceptively counters clinches
^ Strikes effectively off of the breaks
+ Underrated floor recreation
^ Slick submissions in transition

Ilia Topruia vs. Max Holloway focal point: The very best boxers in MMA

Apr 13, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Max Holloway (blue gloves) fights Justin Gaethje (crimson gloves) throughout UFC 300 at T-Cellular Area. Obligatory Credit score: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports activities

The principle occasion for UFC 308 contains a featherweight title struggle between two of the perfect boxers you can see in MMA immediately.

An aggressive fighter who got here out of the gates as extra of a bull than a matador, Ilia Topuria is growing an elite placing recreation earlier than our very eyes.

Sometimes trying to lower off the cage, Topuria will initially show a variety of the precise concepts you’d prefer to see from forward-moving fighters. From small feints that accompany Topuria’s strain to the tight distances he likes to maintain on the toes, the Georgian fighter’s fashion ensures excessive temperatures in his fights.

Right here’s a detailed have a look at Topuria’s stance and the way he chews up house.

He’s consistently transitioning his weight from rear to steer and vice versa

When he goes from rear to steer he’s threatening the overhand, from result in rear he’s threatening together with his jab. pic.twitter.com/hTcO1owPmY

— Phantom Punch Breakdowns (@9h6st21_mma) October 22, 2024

Though Topuria isn’t the tallest or longest fighter in his division, he has a knack for punching together with his opponents with a purpose to meet them within the center. The 27-year-old can be good about flowing into left hooks, significantly down low to the liver.

In opposition to Josh Emmett, Topuria demonstrated the flexibility to focus his aggression for the higher a part of 25 minutes in what was a boxing masterclass reverse a devastating puncher.

Except for stable footwork and a gorgeous jab, Topuria quietly integrated some slick shoulder rolls to guard his chin and take some energy off of Emmett’s photographs. This tactic and the spirit of Topuria’s motion, usually, additionally feed proper into the Georgian’s patent pull counters (which include a Conor McGregor-Esque swagger in tow).

Topuria additionally has some underrated calf kicks that may possible have some play on this struggle, however making any kind of hay on Max Holloway is often simpler stated than performed.

Displaying stable placing and footwork fundamentals since storming onto the UFC scene (as one of many promotion’s youngest signees, no much less), Holloway, who was already bettering from struggle to struggle, turned a giant nook in his profession after his encounter with Cub Swanson.

Since then, we now have witnessed a technical evolution unfold from the Hawaiian, who embraces his creativity and vary with a various arsenal of assaults. Whether or not Holloway is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the previous featherweight kingpin makes for a tough learn on the toes.

When feeling in stride, the 32-year-old appears to repay his earlier bodywork by punctuating his presence with every thing from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled together with his capability to counter successfully from both stance, Holloway can hypothetically take a struggle in many various instructions.

That every one stated, it’s the constructing nature of the champion’s recreation that makes him stand out from the remainder of the UFC steady.

Embodying a fighter archetype that I prefer to seek advice from as “a builder,” Holloway is not going to solely construct on his output, however his understanding of the struggle’s site visitors may even improve as he intelligently takes instruments from his opponent and incorporates them into his recreation.

Max making rapid reads in opposition to TKZ pic.twitter.com/1qLhiHkcUO

— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) April 10, 2024

Nonetheless, offensive quantity – irrespective of how intelligent – comes with a value.

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Jun 24, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Josh Emmett (crimson gloves) fights Ilia Topuria (blue gloves) in a featherweight bout throughout UFC Battle Evening at VyStar Veterans Memorial Area. Obligatory Credit score: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports activities

Between the potential for chaos on the toes to Topuria’s on-paper benefits within the grappling division, nobody ought to be shocked if this social gathering touches the mat this weekend.

A harmful submission grappler who grew up with jiu-jitsu, Topuria has confirmed to be a top-level black belt together with his ending prowess on the ground.
A demon from the front-headlock place, Topuria can seamlessly transition into his favored anaconda choke prefer it’s second nature. Topuria can be a stable wrestler and very good scrambler – an space the place his athleticism significantly shines by means of in the way in which by which he floats positions.

Nonetheless, I’ll be curious to see how a lot Topuria respects the grappling of Holloway on this struggle.

Holloway’s very good placing could hallmark a big a part of his model, however the Hawaiian has quietly made constant enhancements to his counter grappling, sustaining a formidable 84 p.c takedown protection charge.

Even when having his takedown protection examined by a few of the greatest wrestlers within the division, Holloway has been capable of snuff out a big majority of the photographs despatched his means (even easily re-wrestling his strategy to journey positions of his personal every so often).

Not solely does Holloway show the stability and protection to stuff takedowns, however he additionally reveals a superb consciousness of find out how to conduct his hips and grips in shut. Deceptively hand-fighting to counter clinches and grappling efforts, Holloway demonstrates a knack for placing off the breaks, one thing that might be value expecting on this struggle.

Extra importantly, whether or not Holloway is conducting himself from the clinch or contained in the chaos of transition, he has all the time prioritized defending his neck and head by both sustaining an upright posture in shut or retaining his arms within the correct neighborhood to defend grasps.

Even again in his controversially scored loss to Dennis Bermudez, Holloway confirmed the defensive habits of defending chokes (that usually weren’t coming his means) in transit, which tells me that this behavior is deeply hardwired into his system. That stated, Topuria will nonetheless be however one scramble or entrance choke away from doubtlessly altering the complexion of this struggle.

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway odds

The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champ, itemizing Topuria -250 and Holloway +190 through FanDuel.

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway prediction, decide

As somebody who has been excessive on Topuria since previous to his UFC debut, I can perceive the joy and excessive projections that are available tow with the present champion. From his technical savvy that appeals to hardcore struggle followers and analysts alike to the plain swagger that makes him likable to the Gen Pop, Topuria appears to be the full package deal to this point in his younger profession.

That stated, for as spectacular as Topuria has appeared, it’s arduous to say simply how a lot he’s confirmed given the general size and vary of his pattern measurement, significantly compared to somebody like Holloway. And regardless of every thing from age to controversial cage craft being in opposition to Holloway, I nonetheless suppose that there’s a lot to love in regards to the underdog aspect of this equation from a stylistic perspective.

First off, I consider {that a} majority of the avenues that define this matchup are potent two-way streets (which is why this struggle is so wealthy from an analytical standpoint). Whether or not we’re speaking about jab or calf kick openings, similar-themed criticisms will be lobbied at each events. So far as the footwork battle is anxious, I think that the dynamic might be way more difficult than many anticipate.

The essential thought is that Topuria’s high-temperature, cage-cutting method will be capable to reliably funnel Holloway into the sitting champion’s win situations – with some even suggesting that we’d see the primary knockout loss in Holloway’s profession.

Though such a situation is unfortunately on the desk on this recreation, I consider that Holloway’s lateral motion and circling sensibilities have some play on this struggle. Holloway could not make the most of the identical footwork fundamentals as Jose Aldo or will not be as flashy as T.J. Dillashaw in the case of his pivots or shifts, however the Hawaiian has persistently proven stable ring consciousness all through his profession.

Even on this latter stage of Holloway’s placing evolution that sees him sitting down tougher on his punches and kicks alike (one thing I used to be saying in breakdowns earlier than selecting him in his final struggle), the 32-year-old nonetheless reveals good reactions within the warmth of the hearth and is immediate about getting again on the clock with reference to circling again to the middle and resetting.

Max Holloway circling out to the middle… pic.twitter.com/C57dFlWj6n

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 24, 2024

That stated, Holloway will undeniably be enjoying with fireplace if he outfights across the inner-black octagon strains in opposition to some like Topuria, who – akin to Robbie Lawler – involves life at any time when anybody enters his most popular kill zone.

Whether or not Holloway’s getting his kicks countered or is being closely pressured, he will be pushed again to the fence to his detriment. Topuria is aware of this, so each he and his backers appear to consider that it’s principally hook, line and sinker this Saturday.

However as I identified earlier than UFC 300, Holloway’s kicks and counters off the backfoot have been additional potent since his final loss to Alexander Volkanovski.

When going again to have a look at Holloway’s latest fights since stated loss, you may see that – for no matter success his opponent had pushing him backward – the previous champ was capable of reply proper again with much more impactful blows (persevering with his career-long theme of trying higher the extra aggressive his opposition will get).

Max Holloway getting pushed backwards by blitzes, steadily discovering a number of methods to counter and stymie oncoming strain… pic.twitter.com/e5v88TNJ2h

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 24, 2024

Whether or not Holloway is unleashing counter hooks (from both aspect) or is intercepting opponents with stupidly correct spinning assaults, the Waianae native has confirmed to have many solutions for strain up his proverbial sleeve. Holloway has even gotten higher at utilizing every thing from double-hand traps to artful clinch frames and ways to assist additional stymie the strain coming his means.

And although Holloway has among the best chins within the historical past of this sport, the 14-year professional continues to display stellar defensive changes on the fly (as seen beneath in the way in which by which he’s instantly capable of slip and circle off the exact same assaults that beforehand cleaned his clock simply moments prior).

Max Holloway makes prompt defensive changes on the fly… pic.twitter.com/hUSI7YCeab

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 24, 2024

Whereas Topuria, even in a formidable victory over Josh Emmett, proved to be extra defensively vulnerable because the struggle went deeper. Extra particularly, Topuria demonstrated particular openings that might be problematic in opposition to somebody like Holloway and his shot choice.

Ilia Topuria’s widespread offender are left-sided strikes (that land on Topuria’s proper aspect) because of his dipping/crouching sensibilities.

Curious how that may stack up in opposition to Holloway’s shot choice, particularly if the struggle goes deep… pic.twitter.com/PayoVQphXw

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 24, 2024

As acknowledged in my prior breakdowns of Topuria, left-sided strikes (touchdown on Topuria’s proper aspect) are the champion’s widespread offender by a transparent margin. And apart from Holloway quietly hurting a variety of his foes together with his lead hand, I consider that the Hawaiian additionally has the southpaw card up his sleeve if he desires to play it.

Though Holloway by no means stays in a single stance the entire time, I can’t think about there could be a struggle the place preventing southpaw makes extra sense than this one.

Not solely does the open stance dynamic take away the jabs and calf kick from Topuria (who you’ll be hard-pressed to seek out a variety of samples of significant jabs thrown, a lot much less landed, by Topuria in open stance appears), however the Spaniard’s fashion doesn’t appear to vibe effectively when reverse of this stance given how he tends to revert to promoting out from his energy aspect.

Whereas Holloway, irrespective of the dynamic at hand, is a constant jabber and bodywork from each stances.

All the pieces from Holloway’s uppercuts to his spinning aspect kicks will probably be stay from his orthodox stance because of Topuria’s dipping propensities, however I genuinely consider that Holloway will discover success with head kicks and crosses if he meaningfully commits some stretches to southpaw on this struggle.

Add in Holloways ridiculous sturdiness and the truth that he’s the extra confirmed and efficient fighter over 5 rounds, and I’ll fortunately take a flier on “Blessed” to outlive the early scares with a purpose to draw back down the stretch for a stoppage win in Spherical 4.

Prediction: Holloway inside the gap

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway begin time, the place to observe

As the primary occasion, Topuria and Holloway are anticipated to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 4:45 p.m. ET. The struggle streams stay on ESPN+ pay-per-view.