Bob Pockrass
FOX NASCAR Insider
The NASCAR playoffs take a dramatic flip from the Spherical of 12 (quarterfinal spherical) to the Spherical of 8 (semifinal spherical).
It’s not survive and advance. A driver most frequently must both win or come near successful a number of occasions.
Joey Logano earned his win Sunday at Las Vegas. And after some struggles at Vegas, 4 drivers discover themselves a minimum of 27 factors beneath the cutoff and needing an important race at Homestead and/or Martinsville or a victory in a type of two occasions.
Denny Hamlin (27 factors behind), Tyler Reddick (minus-30), Ryan Blaney (minus-47) and Chase Elliott (minus-53) both have to win or have nice races and success.
“We undoubtedly must win,” Elliott stated. “However truthfully, that was my mindset [at Vegas], too. Nothing adjustments for me.”
NASCAR’s model of the playoffs — the place these outdoors the playoffs nonetheless compete every week as nicely — runs over the ultimate 10 races of the season. The primary three rounds include three races, and the 4 winless drivers within the spherical lowest in factors are eradicated, organising 4 drivers who’re eligible for the title within the season finale at Phoenix with the driving force who finishes the very best (they do not get stage factors) topped the champion.
In every spherical, the advancing drivers’ level totals are reset (2000 within the first spherical, 3000 within the quarterfinal spherical, 4000 within the semifinal spherical, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff factors they earned through the season added to their whole apart from the championship race.
The tracks:
- Opening spherical: Atlanta (winner-Joey Logano), Watkins Glen (winner-Chris Buescher, not a playoff driver), Bristol (winner-Kyle Larson). Superior: Logano, Larson, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez. Eradicated from playoff rivalry: Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton.
- Quarterfinal spherical: Kansas (winner-Ross Chastain, not a playoff driver), Talladega (winner-Ricky Stenhouse Jr., not a playoff driver), Charlotte (winner-Kyle Larson). Superior: Byron, Larson, Bell, Blaney, Elliott, Hamlin, Reddick and Logano. Eradicated from playoff rivalry: Bowman, Cindric, Suarez, Briscoe.
- Semifinal spherical: Las Vegas (winner-Logano), Homestead (1.5-mile oval), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval). Superior: Logano, TBA.
- Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).
Here is my playoff rankings primarily based on finest shot to win the title to the worst shot.
1. Christopher Bell (Final Week: 2)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Place: 2nd, +42 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead End: 1st
Bell had the strongest automotive at Las Vegas and simply got here up quick due to gas mileage. He received at Homestead a 12 months in the past and is respectable sufficient at Martinsville (one win, three top-10s in his profession) that he ought to make it to Phoenix, the place we most likely don’t must remind you that he received within the spring.
Prediction: Championship 4 however no title (no change)
2. Kyle Larson (LW: 1)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Place: third, +35 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead End: thirty fourth
A poor day on pit street at Vegas can’t get within the head of this group and break its momentum. It shouldn’t, however till they put a flawless race collectively, there might be questions on whether or not Vegas was an anomaly or not. Larson has 5 top-5s in 10 begins at Homestead and 6 stage wins, so if he wins some phases and has a stable end, he shouldn’t must sweat Martinsville.
Prediction: Champion (no change)
3. William Byron (LW: 3)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Place: 4th, +27 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead End: 4th
Byron has completed within the prime 4 within the final 4 Cup races, nevertheless it all the time appears he’s a spot behind one other playoff driver. The excellent news: Dangle on the market that lengthy, and there might be days the place he’s the very best of the very best. He has a win at Homestead, Martinsville and Phoenix in his profession (together with at Martinsville within the spring). He’s a menace.
Prediction: Championship 4 however no title (no change)
4. Joey Logano (LW: 8)
Staff Penske No. 22 Ford
Place: Superior to Champ 4
2023 Homestead End: eighth
Logano is aware of he might be within the Championship 4, however he additionally is aware of that Phoenix has not just lately been his finest observe. He has three wins at Phoenix in his profession however was thirty fourth within the spring (the place he was concerned in a wreck) and 18th a 12 months in the past. However go forward, doubt Logano at your individual threat.
Prediction: Championship 4 however no title (change from eradicated in semifinal spherical)
5. Denny Hamlin (LW: 4)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Place: fifth, -27 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead End: thirtieth
This spherical was alleged to be a great one for Hamlin, however with pit woes and efficiency that was superb however not as nice as earlier this 12 months, it feels as if issues are slipping away … once more. However he has three profession wins at Homestead and 5 at Martinsville. So a walk-off second is kind of potential.
Prediction: Eradicated within the semifinal spherical (change from making the Championship 4)
6. Chase Elliott (LW: 5)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Place: eighth, -53 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead End: fifteenth
Elliott stated he feels he must win and that will imply a primary for him at Homestead or a second for him at Martinsville. He has simply two top-5s in eight Homestead begins. However Martinsville? He has led 1,104 laps there with six stage wins and 6 top-5 finishes. So do not anticipate a profession day at Homestead to place him again within the combine in factors as there might be hope come Martinsville.
Prediction: Eradicated in semifinal spherical (no change)
7. Ryan Blaney (LW: 6)
Staff Penske No. 12 Ford
Place: seventh, -47 on playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead End: 2nd
Blaney picked a nasty time to have a nasty weekend as a punctured tire put him within the wall in observe after which he bought collected in a wreck through the Vegas race. He received the elimination race at Martinsville a 12 months in the past on the way in which to capturing the title – and he’s going to have to seek out a few of that mojo once more.
Prediction: Eradicated in semifinal spherical (no change)
8. Tyler Reddick (LW: 7)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota
Place: fifth, -30 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead End: third
This appears to be a playoffs to overlook for Reddick. Sure, he’s nice at Homestead with three top-5s in 4 begins. Martinsville, although, isn’t essentially the most variety observe for him (a 19.3 common end and no laps led). The rut this group appears to be in simply is perhaps a bit of too deep.
Prediction: Eradicated in semifinal spherical (no change)
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports activities. He has spent many years masking motorsports, together with over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting Information, NASCAR Scene journal and The (Daytona Seashore) Information-Journal. Comply with him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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