Chris Fallica
FOX Sports activities Wagering Knowledgeable
This previous Saturday was one other electrical day in faculty soccer.
Alabama misplaced to Tennessee— making this the primary time the Tide have recorded two losses in October for the primary time since 2004, Georgia took down top-ranked Texas in a extremely contested sport regardless of what the rating confirmed, Miami and Louisville mixed for 97 factors in a seven-point sport that noticed the Canes narrowly escape a loss for the third consecutive sport, and BYU and Iowa State every gained by three factors to stay as the one undefeated groups within the Large 12.
It was a extremely powerful weekend for the blue blood applications, as USC, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Florida State all misplaced along with Bama and Texas. These colleges are among the most winningest within the historical past of the game, really highlighting how parity is at an all-time excessive.
With weekends like this previous one, prolonged discussions ensue between myself and the advantageous individuals at FOX Sports activities each week as we plan our manufacturing for Large Midday Kickoff. Each Sunday night time, I replicate on what transpired the day earlier than, and ship out a prolonged e mail to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about my ideas on what occurred, in addition to what’s notable for the upcoming week.
I’ve determined to peel again the curtain and share these ideas with you all, as a result of everybody ought to rejoice within the splendor that’s faculty soccer.
This week, 4 ranked groups can be on the street in opposition to unranked opponents, together with 5 ranked vs. ranked matchups happening. We’ll get into these shortly. Six of the groups ranked within the prime 10 of the AP ballot play this weekend, and 20 of the highest 25 have motion as properly.
Let’s dive into my ideas and video games to observe for in Week 9.
Friday night time conflict within the Mountain West
We have talked a ton about Boise State, and their storyline retains on getting higher each week. In an enormous Friday night time matchup, the 5-1 Broncos will journey to Las Vegas to tackle the 6-1 UNLV Rebels. This sport has huge ramifications with regard to who will win the Mountain West, and presumably even have CFP implications as each of those groups may take that G5 convention champion spot. Ashton Jeanty has already dominated Energy convention defenses like Oregon and Washington State, however can he sustain this ridiculous tempo and stay one of many entrance runners for the Heisman Trophy? Friday night time must be a terrific one.
Scarlet Knights go to Los Angeles
After a 3-1 begin, the Trojans have misplaced three straight convention video games and sit beneath .500. This week they host a Rutgers workforce that has additionally dropped three straight after beginning off 4-0. USC has not began 3-5 for the reason that 2001 season, whereas the Scarlet Knights wish to keep away from beginning 3-5 or worse for the seventh time since 2015. Lincoln Riley cannot actually be on the new seat in yr, can he? For perspective, since October twelfth of final yr, Vanderbilt is 5-7, Cal is 6-8, UCLA is 6-9, Colorado is 5-8, Florida is 5-8, Kentucky is 5-9, and USC is 5-9. Meaning USC can be 5-10 in that span with a loss on Friday. One final nugget to depart you with: Riley has by no means misplaced 4 consecutive video games in a single season earlier than in his profession.
Undefeated Pitt
How concerning the Panthers? They be part of Miami as the one undefeated ACC groups left, and tackle a sneaky good Syracuse workforce on Thursday night time. Pitt hasn’t began a season 7-0 since doing so in consecutive years from 1981-82. Cuse’s solely loss this season got here in opposition to Stanford in a Friday sport that ended 26-24. This must be a enjoyable quarterback matchup as Kyle McCord is seventh in all of FBS in passing yards (2,160) and tied for fifth in landing throws (19), whereas Alabama switch Eli Holstein leads all FBS freshmen in passing yards (1,700) and passing touchdowns (15). Fran Brown will attempt to lead the Orange to only their second 6-1 begin since 2000 and their first since 2022.
Beautiful occasions in Louisiana
Louisiana is the place it’s at! Tulane is 5-2 and undefeated in AAC play (and possibly is the perfect G5 workforce), No. 8 LSU is 6-1 and undefeated in SEC play, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 6-1 and undefeated in Solar Belt play, and UL Monroe is 5-1 and likewise undefeated within the Solar Belt. That is solely the second time since 2000 that these 4 applications have mixed for 20+ wins by Week 8 of the season. The Tigers have what must be a terrific matchup in opposition to the 14th ranked Aggies this Saturday. That sport will certainly have SEC championship implications. The Inexperienced Wave are at the moment 7.5-point favorites in opposition to North Texas, the WarHawks are seven-point underdogs in opposition to South Alabama, and Louisiana is on bye this week. Let’s have a look at how the state performs in Week 9.
Oh, and we’ll simply faux that 3-4 Louisiana Tech would not exist for now.
Can Navy do it?
The Midshipmen are a whopping 6-0— their first time doing so since 1979, and are additionally 4-0 in AAC play. Navy is at the moment a 13.5-point underdog in opposition to Notre Dame regardless of their scorching begin. They have not beat the Irish since 2016, and have solely carried out so three different occasions since 1964 (2010, 2009, 2007). Since 1978, there have been 17 groups to be 6-0 or higher that had been at the least a 13.5-point underdog in an everyday season sport. Eleven of the 14 losses got here by at the least 14 factors and 7 had been by at the least 24 factors. However three did win outright— Liberty +17 at Virginia Tech in 2020, Auburn +17 at Florida in 1994 and Georgia Tech +13.5 at Virginia in 1990. Can Navy change into the fourth?
Upset alert in Madison?
Penn State is in a tough spot this week. They’ve an enormous matchup in opposition to Ohio State subsequent week, however journeys to Madison have hardly ever been simple for them.
Test it out beneath:
PENN STATE ON ROAD vs WISCONSIN
SINCE 1996
- 2021: Penn State 16, Wisconsin 10
- 2013: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 24
- 2011: Wisconsin 45, Penn State 7
- 2008: Penn State 48, Wisconsin 7
- 2006: Wisconsin 13, Penn State 3
- 2004: Wisconsin 16, Penn State 3
- 2002: Penn State 34, Wisconsin 31
- 1998: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 3
- 1996: Penn State 23, Wisconsin 20
That comes out to a 5-4 report for the Nittany Lions at Camp Randall since becoming a member of the Large Ten in 1990, with 4 of them determined by seven factors or much less. Since getting drilled within the second half at SC, Wisconsin has overwhelmed up on three of the worst groups within the Large Ten in Purdue, Northwestern and Rutgers to the tune of 117-16. Drew Allar threw a number of interceptions for the primary time in his profession within the nail-biter in opposition to USC, so let’s examine how he bounces again in opposition to a protection that has but to surrender double-digit factors in a sport this month.
Cougars in uncommon spot
BYU simply retains successful! And but, they’re only one.5-point underdogs in opposition to a 3-4 UCF workforce this week. To be truthful, the Knights did nearly pull off the upset in opposition to unbeaten Iowa State this previous Saturday, dropping a 38-35 shootout. However here is some context for BYU’s spot this week. Since 1978, there have been 336 video games the place a workforce 7-0 or higher confronted a workforce with a dropping report. Just one has seen that workforce enter as an underdog— coming in 1993, when 9-0 Auburn went to 4-5 Georgia and beat the Bulldogs. Will the Cougars proceed to defy expectations and hold their magical season going, or do the Knights produce other concepts?
Six win groups with issues
Merely put, there are just a few 6-0 and 6-1 groups which have some actual issues. My Hurricanes for starters, have allowed 117 factors of their final three video games and have gained these video games by a mixed 12 factors. The protection wants some critical revamping or they’re sure to drop one quickly. As talked about above, Pitt has a troublesome matchup this week in opposition to Cuse and will report their first loss. They have three wins by 4 factors or fewer, together with a one-point and two-point win. Duke recorded their first win in program historical past in opposition to FSU, however nonetheless has a degree differential of -2 in ACC play. BYU’s acquired three one-score wins themselves and wanted a miracle this previous week in opposition to Oklahoma State. And there is Illinois who uncharacteristically allowed 49 factors in an extra time win in opposition to one of many worst groups within the Large Ten in Purdue just a few weeks in the past. You can also’t overlook Notre Dame who dropped a sport to Northern Illinois earlier this yr. And the final workforce of this bunch that issues me is Missouri, who wanted extra time in opposition to Vanderbilt, beat Boston Faculty by six factors, and got here from behind this previous week within the remaining minute in opposition to Auburn. One among these groups is sure to lose quickly.
Wild Heisman race
This Heisman race is fairly wild. Right here’s a really believable state of affairs… Oregon loses at the least as soon as (together with the Large Ten title sport), Boise State loses at the least yet one more time (together with the MWC title sport), Miami loses at the least as soon as (together with ACC title sport), Colorado loses at the least as soon as extra, Georgia wins out, and Ohio State wins out.
What the heck occurs then?
Its not like Carson Beck was nice the opposite night time. Enter Jeremiah Smith? Would among the losses cancel out and Cam Ward or would Dillon Gabriel would nonetheless win? Simply looks like there are nonetheless so many potentialities. With Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter being hampered by accidents the final couple weeks, may Shedeur Sanders enter the dialog if the Buffs proceed successful and discover themselves within the Large 12 title sport? The CU QB is at the moment 50-1! Regulate these gamers and their groups because the season progresses. Jeanty is at the moment the favourite at +220, adopted by Ward at +250 and Gabriel at +380.
Spartans and Wolverines meet
Who would have thought Michigan and Michigan State would have an identical data getting into this week? The Wolverines are simply four-point favorites regardless of the sport happening within the Large Home, and with the way in which their offense has regarded, that is anybody’s sport. MSU ranks 14th within the Large Ten in scoring at 21.6 factors per sport, with Michigan proper behind them at 21.1. The final 4 conferences within the collection have been break up at two apiece, and the house workforce has solely gained 4 of the final ten matchups. After the Spartans, Michigan has No. 1 Oregon, No. 13 Indiana, Northwestern, and naturally— No. 4 Ohio State within the Large Recreation. 1939 TCU and 1943 Ohio State are the one groups within the AP ballot period (since 1936) to complete beneath .500 after having gained a serious nationwide title within the earlier yr (AP, BCS, coaches, CFP). Will the Wolverines change into the third?
Large Midday Kickoff in Columbus
There was a number of discuss Ohio State’s lack of defensive stress within the loss to Oregon, and another massive sport losses in recent times. Search for Ryan Day’s squad to return out swinging on this BNK matchup, because the Buckeyes are 4-0 in opposition to the Huskers since 2000— successful these video games by a median of 41.3 factors per sport. Nebraska has misplaced 26 straight video games in opposition to ranked opponents (the second-longest energetic streak behind Rutgers’ 40), has not had a six-win season since going 9-4 in 2016, and simply gave up 56 factors in opposition to Indiana. Can one of the vital storied applications in faculty soccer ever get near what they as soon as had been? I am undecided if the following step can be taken in Columbus.
Thrilling Biletnifkoff race
The extensive receiver play this yr has been out of this world. You have got two stars in Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith that we have been speaking about all yr, however there are a number of different studs like Tre Harris and Tetaiora McMillan who’re all placing on respectable instances to be the Biletnikoff winner this yr. For perspective, Harris leads FBS with 987 receiving yards and McMillan is sixth with 780 (he put up an outrageous 304 yards in Arizona’s opener). Miami’s Xavier Restrepo additionally ranks prime 10 in FBS in receiving yards (686), receiving yards per sport (98.0), and receptions of 20+ yards (12). And let’s not overlook Travis Hunter who’s doing issues we have by no means seen in faculty soccer along with his two-way play. This can be an thrilling award race to observe all season, as all of those guys are deserving of it.
Reality or Fiction?
Listed below are some statements that popped into my head after this weekend. You determine whether or not or not they will come to fruition!
- Alabama will miss the CFP.
- Oregon will win the Large Ten.
- BYU will win the Large 12.
- Tulane is the perfect G5 workforce.
- Oklahoma won’t make a bowl sport.
- Florida State will end 2-10.
- Clemson is the perfect workforce within the ACC.
- Shedeur Sanders would be the No. 1 decide in NFL Draft.
- Texas A&M can be within the SEC title sport.
- Curt Cignetti has the Bryant Award wrapped up.
- Texas is best off with Arch Manning at QB.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has coated sports activities for almost three many years. Whereas faculty soccer has been his focus, he additionally enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such occasions. Chris not too long ago gained the inaugural Circa Soccer Invitational and completed within the Prime 10 of the Golden Nugget Soccer Contest. He is a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Keep in mind, “The much less you wager, the extra you lose if you win!” Comply with him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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