Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
Bettors know that, presently, there are a number of groups proper now within the NFL that simply flat out stink.
The Patriots are one, and the Browns are one other.
However in some way, I nonetheless think about them to hold with their opponents this weekend.
Sounds weird — I do know. However I’ve acquired my causes.
With that in thoughts, let’s go forward and dive into my greatest bets for NFL Week 8.
(All occasions ET)
SUNDAY, OCT. 27
Jets @ Patriots (1 p.m., CBS)
I totally perceive the Patriots usually are not good.
They’re 1-6 with six straight losses, together with a 16-point loss to the Jaguars on Sunday in England, after dropping by three touchdowns to the Texans the week earlier than.
Regardless of the defeats, the Patriots’ change at quarterback has given them life on that aspect of the ball. Drake Maye is finishing practically 66% of passes to zero receiving weapons who’d begin on every other group. He’s thrown for simply over 500 yards with 5 touchdowns.
The Patriots, who we all know aren’t good, are going through the 2-5 Jets, who’re additionally not good. Why are the Jets a landing favourite over anybody proper now? They’re a dysfunctional group that may’t rating and, after the firing of Robert Saleh, can’t play protection now.
This group is ranked twenty first in each offensive and defensive DVOA and, in an indication of poor teaching, it’s twenty eighth in particular groups.
New York has no enterprise being a 7-point street favourite.
PICK: Patriots (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 factors, or win outright
Can anybody beat the Ravens proper now?
Ravens @ Browns (1 p.m., CBS)
Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson was the worst quarterback within the NFL this season.
Watson tore his Achilles tendon in Week 7 and was placed on injured reserve. Watson not being within the lineup will give the Browns higher quarterback play and, by default, Cleveland will get higher.
The Browns have a wholesome Jameis Winston to play quarterback. He acquired one drive in Week 7 they usually instantly scored. Even when Dorian Thompson-Robinson performs, the Browns are higher with out Watson. They welcomed again Nick Chubb final week, and I’m going to wager on the offense simply having extra confidence with out Watson within the lineup.
On protection, the Browns aren’t dangerous on paper, however for the reason that offense couldn’t get a primary down, they began to falter in video games with too many reps. It should not be a difficulty with a greater Browns offense.
We are going to see an uptick within the Browns protection with a brand new quarterback.
The Ravens are additionally off an enormous Monday Evening Soccer win and have a brief relaxation earlier than going again on the street. That is simply a great spot for the Browns, who usually are not 11 factors worse than the Ravens with a brand new QB.
PICK: Browns (+11) to lose by fewer than 11 factors, or win outright
Tom Brady’s 3 Stars of Week 7: Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Russell Wilson
Panthers @ Broncos (4:25 p.m., CBS)
The Carolina Panthers are boring and dangerous, which is a nasty place to be.
They aren’t taking part in anybody at quarterback who they’re grooming for the long run. There’s a uncommon participant or two which are future stars for them, however it’s principally only a lifeless franchise proper now — and it has been taking part in like that.
Carolina has suffered blowout losses in 5 straight video games and, after a fast spark with a quarterback change in Week 3, the offense has gotten progressively worse. Working example: The Panthers scored simply seven factors in Washington towards a Commanders protection that’s backside third within the NFL.
Now the Panthers head again on the street to face an excellent Broncos protection, one which’s ranked thrd in DVOA and in factors per recreation. The Broncos are trending to get again Patrick Surtain from concussion and I don’t know the way the Panthers rating on this recreation.
PICK: Panthers Beneath 16.5 factors scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper sort out for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Comply with him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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