Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
Contract negotiations are a fragile factor. Some NHL gamers want tuning them out all collectively in the course of the season. Others would possibly need the method wrapped up shortly — however pretty — and eavesdrop on each element 12 months spherical.
The secret’s to not let these conversations be a distraction to what’s truly being achieved on the ice.
Simply ask Alexis Lafreniere.
He is the most recent participant to signal a long-term extension, inking a seven-year, $52.15 million pact with the New York Rangers final week on the heels of a breakout 2023-24 marketing campaign the place the 23-year-old tallied 28 targets and 57 factors in 82 video games. If Lafreniere continues that form of development his large deal will likely be a candy steal for the Rangers.
Now that Lafreniere is locked in long run, who may be subsequent to safe the proverbial bag?
There’s already hypothesis round what the likes of Connor McDavid, Cale Makar and Kirill Kaprizov might obtain on a contemporary extension, which they’re all eligible to signal starting subsequent July.
After conversations with league insiders, here’s a pattern of gamers — from the plain to maybe extra obscure — which can be poised to (presumably) receives a commission sooner reasonably than later. And with the NHL wage cap anticipated to maintain climbing upwards from its present $88 million, there’s (doubtlessly) much more cash to spare when these contracts are doled out.
The superstars
It was a pant heard ‘around the hockey world when ESPN’s Kevin Weekes reported earlier this month that Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin had turned down an eight-year, $88 million extension — which might have made Shesterkin the highest-paid goalie in NHL historical past.
Make no mistake: Shesterkin will likely be paid handsomely sooner or later — in New York or elsewhere if the pending unrestricted free agent so chooses. And that deal will recalibrate the marketplace for goaltenders going ahead.
“My guess is Shesterkin will get upwards of $11.5 [million] per,” one agent stated. “He isn’t going to accept a decrease quantity simply because. I believe the [Jeremy] Swayman scenario proved that is not [a norm].”
Truthful sufficient. Plus, Shesterkin has come a great distance over the course of his present four-year, $22.67 million deal. He received a Vezina Trophy because the league’s prime goaltender following the 2021-22 season, and completed third that 12 months in Hart Trophy voting for league MVP. He is perennially one of many NHL’s prime netminders and this season is not any totally different; Shesterkin is 4-1-1, with a .926 save proportion and a couple of.16 goals-against common, each of which ratios are prime 5 within the NHL.
Shesterkin’s place as New York’s spine makes his subsequent contract the large transfer value waiting for subsequent — and who is aware of? There might be extra drama on the way in which there earlier than pens hit paper.
Talking of dramatics, there’s been no scarcity of these surrounding Mitch Marner. The Toronto Maple Leafs winger has declined to remark publicly on extension talks, however they’re occurring behind closed doorways. Marner’s present mark of $10.9 million per 12 months appears prone to rise, and he has two teammates as factors of comparability in talks: Auston Matthews’ $13.5 million per 12 months wage and William Nylander’s $11.5 million. Marner falls someplace within the center.
His camp has taken a “wait and see” strategy with the Leafs up to now, testing the waters from coaching camp into the brand new season and watching how that performed out. Marner’s had a stable begin to the marketing campaign with one purpose and 10 factors in 9 video games, giving him the workforce lead in scoring. With that in thoughts, it could behoove the Leafs to get Marner’s deal accomplished now earlier than any asking worth begins to rise.
Alternatively, it is the postseason the place Toronto has most needed to see Marner at his finest — and the place the winger has repeatedly faltered at being a certifiable difference-maker.
“It would not shock me in any respect if Marner will get to the summer time with out an extension,” one other agent stated. “It additionally would not shock me if Marner was the subsequent man signed [to a big contract]. He is a dominant participant. However how does [GM Brad Treliving] see that workforce’s core now and going ahead? All of it components in.”
One marquee participant who won’t be happy shortly (or simply) by his present membership? Mikko Rantanen. The Colorado Avalanche’s top-line winger seems to have stalled out in conversations with the Avs about extending past his present deal value $9.25 million per season. Rantanen has teammate Nathan MacKinnon’s eight-year, $100.8 million contract as a comparability software, and that is not essentially the vary Colorado sees Rantanen touchdown in — even when Rantanen does.
Anticipate Rantanen to make use of a sizzling 2024-25 marketing campaign — through which he is now tied for third in league scoring with 4 targets and 13 factors — to showcase why he is value a MacKinnon-like payday when the time comes to shut a deal, in Colorado or elsewhere.
The core set
It is not like usually tight-lipped New York Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello goes to tip his hand about Brock Nelson’s future with the workforce. However, Nelson is a pending UFA and regardless of some rampant hypothesis the Islanders might transfer him on the commerce deadline, there is a robust case to be made for paying the person to remain long-term.
Nelson’s profession has been on the rise for many of the previous three seasons, over which he is led New York with 111 targets and 209 factors in 244 video games (that is with three consecutive 30-plus purpose outings). Frankly, the 33-year-old has been displaying up for a roster that is constantly quick on scoring, and the very fact he is getting higher 12 months over 12 months makes extending him previous this six-year, $36 million contract sensible enterprise for Lamoriello. Foundational items like Nelson are onerous to return by.
It is a comparable scenario with Vancouver ahead Brock Boeser. Regardless of an up-and-down run with the Canucks to this point that included final season’s disappointing end to the postseason because of a blood-clotting problem, there is not any denying Boeser’s place as a gradual pressure in Vancouver’s offense. The 27-year-old had the very best common season of his profession in 2023-24, pacing the Canucks with 40 targets and 73 factors in 81 video games — then added seven targets and 12 factors in 12 postseason tilts earlier than being sidelined. These numbers — coupled with a point-per-game begin to this season — ought to web Boeser a hefty enhance on his present three-year, $19.95 million deal.
It might take some time for the Canucks to kind by their cap scenario and discover a center floor with Boeser. And given how properly he is enjoying, Boeser won’t thoughts ready, both.
One other core participant that looks like a no brainer for a long-term deal is Florida Panthers middle Sam Bennett. Talks are ongoing between the Panthers and their pending UFA, and that is an amazing factor for each events. Florida already sealed the (long-term) take care of Carter Verhaeghe this month, and taking good care of Bennett is GM Invoice Zito’s subsequent precedence.
Bennett has eclipsed the 40-point mark in his final three seasons with Florida and gathered 20-plus targets in two of these outings, making him one of many Panthers’ most dependable items up entrance. He is proven to be one of many league’s distinguished energy forwards — an more and more uncommon breed — and Bennett additionally packed a punch for the Panthers within the playoffs, averaging almost a degree per sport in each of their runs to the Stanley Cup Closing, in 2023 and 2024.
Bennett is wrapping up a contract value $4.425 million this season, and whereas he ought to anticipate a increase of some kind, the chance to maintain profitable in Florida may be all of the juice Bennett must get a extra team-friendly deal closed and maintain the nice instances rolling.
The rising stars
It is easier, in some instances, to peg the place established gamers (like these above) would possibly land when it comes to their subsequent important contracts. For those nonetheless placing down roots within the league? Trickier!
Take the Boston Bruins’ Morgan Geekie. He had a standout season in 2023-24, with career-high totals in targets (17) and factors (39) by 76 video games. Geekie entered coaching camp this fall with elevated expectations and top-six potential. Boston’s uncharacteristically gradual begin to the marketing campaign has appeared to place the whole workforce — together with Geekie — in a haze, and the 26-year-old has only one help in his first eight video games.
What does all of it imply within the grand scheme for Boston’s pending RFA? Loads. The Bruins have seen Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retire in recent times, and it is guys like Geekie who can exchange them into the longer term. That is to not say Geekie will likely be overpaid instantly, but it surely’s in Boston’s finest curiosity to provide Geekie a stable deal that solidifies his place as a premier a part of their future. Doing so earlier than summer time might be a lift for Geekie’s confidence.
The Dallas Stars have a comparably essential participant in Wyatt Johnston, who’s additionally set to be a restricted free agent — and who they might be smart to deal with in brief order. Johnston has face-of-the-franchise potential after the final two seasons, throughout which era he produced 56 targets and 106 factors. Johnston can be simply 21 years previous; given he is already turn out to be a cornerstone of the Stars’ offense, that is going to value them on a brand new deal.
Providing Johnston a long-term deal at across the identical $8-$8.5 million a 12 months wage that Dallas has doled out to teammates Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen needs to be sufficient to maintain everybody completely happy. Johnston has been with Dallas on consecutive journeys to the Western Convention finals, and the chance to remain in a profitable fold is tough to show down.
