Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
We’re cruising proper alongside on this faculty soccer season.
And now that we’re in Week 9, there are just a few attention-grabbing matchups on the slate.
I am significantly within the Notre Dame-Navy recreation, because the Midshipmen lastly face a workforce that ought to be capable to maintain its personal in opposition to them.
However what is going to the ultimate end result be?
Maintain studying to see how I am wagering on that matchup, plus a pair extra of my finest bets for this weekend.
(All occasions ET)
Saturday, Oct. 26
Washington @ No. 13 Indiana (midday, BTN)
Indiana is 7-0 straight up (SU) and 7-0 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). The Hoosiers are one of the best story in faculty soccer with first 12 months head coach Curt Cignetti. And his squad appears to make it 8-0 because the soccer world turns its consideration to Bloomington.
Indiana is with out its beginning quarterback Kurtis Rourke due to a thumb harm. Tayven Jackson will begin for Indiana after a full week of preparation. Whereas Rourke might be missed, I consider Jackson can adequately run the Hoosiers offense and achieve success on this matchup.
Their run recreation is excellent, and the Huskies run protection is way worse on the street; virtually two yards distinction in yards per rush when Washington’s at residence versus on the street.
Then it’s a must to take a look at how Washington’s offense will match up in opposition to Indiana’s protection.
The Huskies offense is nice however doesn’t end drives with factors. It’s eightieth in factors per drive and that’s as a result of it does dumb stuff on the street. UW has performed 4 video games at residence and averaged round 5 penalties per contest. The Huskies have performed three video games away from residence and common 9.5 penalties per recreation in these cases.
Including to the house/street splits is the Huskies’ third-down manufacturing.
On offense, UW has transformed 49% of third-down makes an attempt at residence. When away from residence, that quantity drops to 27%. Washington’s third-down protection stops the opponent 23% of the time at residence however that quantity drops to 48% on the street.
Alarming splits for Washington on the street in opposition to Indiana.
I’m taking Indiana to cowl this recreation.
PICK: Indiana (-6.5) to win by greater than 6.5 factors
Nebraska vs. No. 4 Ohio State on Large Midday Kickoff
Nebraska @ No. 4 Ohio State (midday, FOX and FOX Sports activities app)
Ohio State goes to call its rating on this recreation in opposition to Nebraska.
The Buckeyes are off a bye after shedding a hard-fought recreation in opposition to Oregon by a single level. They’re nonetheless essentially the most proficient workforce within the nation and had a whole two weeks to stew on the Oregon loss. They rank fifth in offensive factors per drive and have scored at the least 31 factors in all their video games. Ohio State is fourth in defensive factors per drive and, outdoors of permitting 32 in opposition to Oregon, the Buckeyes have allowed not more than 14 factors in a single recreation.
Nebraska began quick in Matt Rhule’s second season however has slowed down in current weeks.
Most of this may be attributed to the actual fact the Huskers offense is led by a real freshman quarterback. It has scored solely 21 factors within the final two video games, together with a 56-7 loss to Indiana final weekend. It’s 84th in factors per drive and 114th in yards per profitable play.
After the Buckeyes protection heard all week the way it can’t rush the passer and needed to hear about the way it obtained burned by Oregon’s receivers, I’d anticipate Ohio State’s protection to play effectively.
This looks like 49-7, Ohio State.
PICK: Ohio State (-25.5) to win by greater than 25.5 factors
CFB Week 9: Vanderbilt vs. Texas finest bets, predictions & odds
No. 12 Notre Dame @ No. 24 Navy (midday, ABC)
Undefeated Navy “hosts” Notre Dame at MetLife stadium in East Rutherford.
Navy is taking part in its first recreation of the season in opposition to a workforce that may adequately punch again, and we’ve seen loads of groups lose this season in the identical state of affairs.
Georgia misplaced to Alabama. Texas misplaced to Georgia. Ohio State misplaced to Oregon.
I feel Navy is in for a similar destiny this weekend.
Listed here are the SP+ workforce effectivity rankings of the 5 FBS Navy opponents: Temple is 127, Memphis 59, UAB 119, Air Power 125 and Charlotte 122.
One of the best offense Navy confronted was Memphis and the Midshipmen allowed 44 factors to the Tigers. Notre Dame is ranked eighth in SP+, thirtieth in offensive factors per drive and fifth in defensive factors per drive.
Navy’s offense is enjoyable. The Midshipmen cross the ball extra now, however I don’t see them matching up bodily with Notre Dame’s defensive assault. The Combating Irish offense can rush the ball in opposition to a Navy protection ranked 96th in dashing success fee.
I feel Notre Dame overpowers Navy and covers this recreation.
PICK: Notre Dame (-13.5) to win by greater than 13.5 factors
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began at proper sort out for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Comply with him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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